Experts warn online radicalization drives new wave of targeted attacks

Federal investigators are examining the online activity of the suspect accused of assassinating conservative activist Charlie Kirk in Utah, as questions grow about how digital spaces are fueling a new wave of politically motivated attacks — including last year’s attempted assassination of President Donald Trump.

A viral post from the Libs of TikTok account on X listed several recent shootings and noted multiple suspects identified as transgender or nonbinary, calling it “an epidemic of trans violence.”

But experts say those claims miss the mark. The real danger, they warn, is playing out in the hidden corners of Reddit, Discord and other chat platforms, where grievance and validation feed off one another and push isolated individuals toward violence.

Former homeland security adviser for New York State Michael Balboni told Fox News Digital that assassinations have risen over the past decade and the targets are no longer limited to politicians.

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“We’re seeing activists and media figures targeted,” Balboni said. “These are people who feel aggrieved or insignificant and believe they’ll commit a heroic act. The Charlie Kirk case shows how the threat landscape has widened.”

He described online hatred as the spark that turns grievance into action, allowing angry users to find each other and fan the flames.

“Like-minded folks feed off one another in social-media spaces until somebody takes the next step and decides to kill. That’s the key to radicalization today.”

Investigators are reviewing digital evidence tied to the suspect in Kirk’s assassination, including Discord messages recovered after the shooting, according to court filings and law-enforcement statements. Federal agencies are also examining related chat logs, Homeland Security Today reported.

Similar digital footprints have surfaced in other cases. The Buffalo supermarket shooter kept a private “Discord diary,” according to the findings in the New York State Attorney’s investigative report.

The Uvalde gunman used the teen chat app Yubo and Instagram DMs to send disturbing messages before his attack. Earlier shooters in El Paso and Christchurch posted manifestos on 8chan before livestreaming their crimes.

The common thread, experts say, isn’t gender or political identity, it’s digital isolation.

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Former FBI investigator and international security expert Bill Daly told Fox News Digital the radicalization pattern emerging in these shootings mirrors what agents once saw with international terror networks.

“Their reasons for being radicalized are often very similar to what we saw with ISIS recruits — a mix of ideology, personal grievance and a search for belonging,” Daly said. “It doesn’t always happen overnight. There are breadcrumbs, small behavioral changes, that build over time as they find validation in online communities.”

He said extremists exploit familiar digital environments such as gaming servers and chat apps to reach younger users.

“Those same gaming and chat sites that once were harmless now give extremists direct access to impressionable minds,” Daly said. “Younger people live in these spaces, and that’s where they’re most vulnerable.”

Retired FBI Supervisory Special Agent Jason Pack, who has responded to multiple mass-shooting scenes, said the temptation to see a demographic pattern is understandable but misleading.

“Identity does not predict violence. Trying to forecast danger based on labels alone is like trying to predict the weather with a fortune cookie,” Pack told Fox News Digital.

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This puts the focus where he believes it belongs – on behavior, not biography.

He said the FBI’s behavioral model focuses instead on a pathway to violence, which includes grievance, fixation, validation in online communities, planning, and finally the “breach point” when an attacker decides violence will solve a personal problem.

“People on the pathway to violence drift into places like Discord or niche forums because those spaces give them anonymity, validation and a sense of belonging they don’t have in real life,” Pack said. “Those corners of the internet can run like an open sewer, and folks already in a dark place tend to drink from the wrong end of the pipe.”

Balboni said the environment that breeds such attackers has been years in the making, from pandemic isolation to fears over automation and artificial intelligence.

“We’ve lived through years of anxiety — the pandemic, job loss, now fears about AI,” he said. “Add deep political polarization, and you get people online being told they’re worthless and dismissed by society. Some decide to act.”

He said today’s environment represents a “lone-wolf nightmare” for law enforcement.

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“These aren’t organized cells,” Balboni explained. “They’re individuals not on anyone’s radar who have weapons, motivation and access, the hardest scenario for the FBI and police to anticipate.”

Daly agreed that encryption and overseas hosting complicate detection.

“People move to encrypted sites that are difficult, if not sometimes impossible, to penetrate,” Daly said. “Even with today’s technology, it can be extraordinarily hard for law enforcement to see what’s happening behind those walls.”

According to the New York Attorney General’s report on the Buffalo case, these forums provided “a sense of community and tactical instruction” that accelerated the attacker’s radicalization.

The assassination of Kirk, who was shot during a public event in Orem, Utah, was the most prominent political attack since the July 2024 rally assassination attempt on Trump in Pennsylvania. Both incidents fueled fears of escalating partisan violence.

Authorities said early evidence in the Kirk case suggests the gunman’s motive stemmed from online relationships and personal grievance more than ideology.

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Pack said he sees a familiar dynamic. 

“In the 1990s it was foreign extremists. After Oklahoma City it was anti-government radicals. Each era brings a cluster of cases that people try to tie together,” he said. “Sometimes those clusters show a wider shift, sometimes they’re coincidence. You can’t tell by identity — you study the behavior.”

All three experts agreed the solution lies in vigilance and connection, not profiling.

“It takes a larger group to have an active intervention process. Families, friends, anyone who sees troubling behavior needs to speak up,” Daly said.

Balboni urged both restraint and awareness.

“Don’t glorify the shooter. Don’t even use the name,” he said. “And if families see behavior change or access to weapons, report it. That’s where intervention starts.”

Pack echoed that sentiment.

“What helps someone step back from the edge is connection,” he said. “Sometimes that’s family, sometimes it’s friends, sometimes it’s faith that reminds them they’re not walking alone.”

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As political tensions rise and social-media outrage amplifies each new attack, investigators warn that focusing on identity misses the point.

The greater danger, they say, lies in how grievance, loneliness and online validation collide, turning personal despair into public violence in the shadows of Reddit threads, Discord servers and encrypted chatrooms few outsiders ever see.

Stepheny Price covers crime, including missing persons, homicides and migrant crime. Send story tips to [email protected].