There was a time, back when Baby Boomers were just learning to drive, that midsize pickups dominated the American truck market. They were cheap, versatile, and plentiful, models like Ford Ranger, Chevrolet S-10, and Toyota Hilux collectively generating 1.4 million annual sales at their peak.
But that was before manufacturers shifted focus to bigger — and decidedly more profitable — rigs like the Ford F-150 and Chevy Silverado. By the turn of the millennium, demand flip-flopped, and most manufacturers dropped out of the market.
The one constant, then and now? The Toyota Tacoma. Even with an assortment of new competitors, it has remained the king of the hill. At the segment’s low point a dozen years ago, it was responsible for nearly two-thirds of the midsize trucks sold in the U.S. Toyota has barely lost its stride as the midsize market rebounds, with the Tacoma delivering a full 42% sales gain last year.
But can it continue to dominate? Not if the Hyundai Motor Group has its way. The Korean automaker has signaled its intent to launch a pair of serious alternatives through the Hyundai and Kia brands. And GearJunkie got some insight into what’s coming during a series of conversations with HMG executives in the U.S. and Korea.
A New Direction
The Hyundai Motor Group, or HMG, has scored a series of solid hits with SUVs like the Hyundai Palisade and Kia Telluride — though it’s failed to set the world on fire with the compact Hyundai Santa Cruz pickup. These are, of course, all unibody designs with at most modest off-road capability even in the most rugged packages, like the Palisade XRT Pro.
Hyundai signaled a new direction at the New York International Auto Show 3 months ago with the unveiling of Boulder. This is a thinly disguised prototype of the full body-on-frame SUV it’s developing, with its U.S. design and engineering operations consciously taking the lead. What it’s working up will be substantially different in size, performance, features, and capabilities from the little Tasman Kia currently sells overseas, positioning the U.S. as a — if not the — lead market.
Although the automaker declined to provide hard stats, insiders including Sang-Yup Lee, Executive Vice President and Head of the Hyundai and Genesis Global Design Center, as well as Kia Global Business Planning Chief Spencer Cho, confirmed that the plan is to provide the sort of ride height and approach, breakover and departure angles, among other things that one would expect from the likes of a Ford Bronco or Jeep Wrangler.
Multiple Products
And, more to the point, a Toyota Tacoma. There will be multiple products coming off the body-on-frame platform used for Boulder, confirmed José Muñoz, president of automotive operations for Hyundai Motor Co. Kia, not surprisingly, will get its own version of the SUV. And both brands will get a pickup that insiders said will be available in multiple trims, including direct counterpoints to the most rugged Tacoma TRD and TRD Pro options.
There’s a bit of internal skirmishing underway to see which brand gets which product first, a senior insider told GearJunkie. But, we should see a production Boulder by around 2028, with the midsize pickups to follow before 2030.
The two brands are working closely on the basic underpinnings, confirmed Cho. But, we should see a reasonable level of distinction from a design and features standpoint — much as is currently the case with the Palisade/Telluride siblings.
What all sources agreed upon is that the most rugged versions of the upcoming pickups will have to meet the benchmark set by Tacoma. As for volumes? No one we spoke to would promise a David immediately set to take down Toyota’s Goliath. But considering the growth the Kia and Hyundai brands have been experiencing in other segments, the Koreans think they could rapidly become one of the biggest players in the midsize pickup market within a few years.
Back From the Dead
A few years ago, it might have seemed questionable to devote so much time and money to entering the midsize segment. Honda has shown why. Its Ridgeline model has never been more than an also-ran and will undergo a “temporary” 18-month production halt later this year.
Officially, the Japanese automaker blames problems meeting emissions requirements — but weak sales clearly play a role. Honda claims it will relaunch with a major update.
The release of the movie Urban Cowboy back in 1980 signaled a seismic shift in the truck market, with John Travolta’s F-250 helping sell the idea that bigger was better when it came to pickups. From a 1987 peak of 1.4 million, sales of midsize models tumbled to just 242,750 by 2014. Of course, it didn’t help that familiar nameplates like Ford Ranger and Chevrolet Colorado were pulled from the market.
When they returned, they were very different vehicles — no longer the stripped-down econoboxes that had been so popular back in the 1970s and 1980s, adding new features and a more comfortable, car-like ride. They were also markedly bigger than the midsize trucks of decades past.
I recall driving a Colorado during a media event in San Diego back in 2014 and pulling up next to an old Chevrolet CK. The Colorado was nearly as big as that ‘70s-era full-size model — and decidedly more upscale.
Tackling Tacoma
The market has grown to accept the new players — with the exception of Ridgeline — but Tacoma hasn’t lost its mojo. With help from a major makeover, demand hit 274,638 last year, a 42.4% year-over-year increase — and a figure bigger than the entire midsize pickup segment just 11 years earlier.
That said, it’s the roughly 4,400-pound gorilla that everyone would like a piece of. And Kia and Hyundai aren’t the only ones who’ll be taking aim.
Who’s Coming
By the time HMG delivers its two pickups, we’re promised Ridgeline will be back. Then there’s Ram, which will enter the game with the reborn Dakota due out sometime in 2027 as a 2028 model. Contrary to early expectations, it will get an all-new body-on-frame platform, rather than sharing the architecture used for the Jeep Gladiator.
It’s expected to feature several powertrain options, including a potential segment-first hybrid. Parent Stellantis is gearing up to build as many as 100,000 Dakotas annually at the Toledo Assembly Complex. Prices are expected to start in the $30,000-40,000 range.
Jeep, meanwhile, is coming up with the Scrambler. Set to debut in 2028, it’s basically a two-door take on Gladiator, with just a single row of seats and a shorter body and wheelbase better suited for serious off-roading.
Volkswagen Group, meanwhile, could have two entries. Rumors have long circulated that a U.S. version of its global Amarok truck is in the works. And while he didn’t confirm the concept, VW Group of America CEO Kjell Gruner said in April that he “wouldn’t rule out” a pickup in one form or another. Then there’s VW’s reborn Scout brand, which plans to launch both all-electric and extended-range versions of the Terra pickup.
Compact Competition
As if that’s not enough, we’re likely to see a further expansion of the compact pickup segment that Ford has not effectively energized with Maverick.
During its Investors Day event in May, Stellantis officials revealed plans to launch the new Ram Rampage, a version of the unibody pickup currently sold in Europe and Latin America. It’s expected to feature a 2.0L turbocharged version of the Hurricane inline-four engine.
Toyota is preparing its own unibody assault on Maverick’s dominance in the compact segment. Slotting under Tacoma, it’s expected to feature a hybrid engine, and the name, Toyota Stout, has been floated by a number of sources.
Ford will launch a second entry in the compact segment in 2027. Though a formal name has yet to be revealed, the first product developed through the new Universal Vehicle program in 2027 will be a two-row model, and it will be all-electric.
Finally, there’s the Jeff Bezos–backed startup Slate set to launch a completely stripped-down, all-electric compact pickup “something” in the next year or so. The Slate truck will be a paean to the classic small trucks of a half-century ago, with roll-down windows and no radio — though options will include a DIY kit to convert the pickup into an SUV.
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