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Investigators are exploring every possible motive in the early-morning shooting that killed Mark Calcagni, longtime general manager of San Francisco’s famous Condor Club, who was found gunned down near his Santa Rosa home earlier this month.
“Everything’s on the table, whether or not this was a targeted attack, assassination or a robbery gone bad,” former LAPD Detective Moses Castillo told Fox News Digital, noting that it’s likely no theory has been ruled out.
Castillo, drawing on decades of homicide and organized-crime experience, said authorities are likely examining a wide range of possibilities — from a business dispute or retaliation by a disgruntled employee, to a random robbery that escalated to murder.
“This type of business oftentimes does attract some sort of criminal element to it,” he said. “Maybe somebody felt they were shorted or ripped off – that could be a motive here.”
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He added that investigators are doing a “deep dive into the victim’s timeline,” retracing Calcagni’s movements in the days and weeks leading up to his death to uncover any potential conflicts.
A private-sector security expert also told Fox News Digital that the circumstances of the attack leave room for multiple interpretations.
“It could be anything,” Chris McGoey said. “They may not be connected at all. The shooting occurred in Santa Rosa around 6:30 in the morning, an hour away, and there’s no indication yet whether he was driving, walking or possibly out for exercise.”
McGoey added that investigators will look for clues such as missing property, whether Calcagni was robbed or targeted, and what camera or phone data reveal.
“They’ll canvas the neighborhood, look for Ring doorbell cameras, check his cellphone, and see whether anything was taken,” he said. “If he was shot on the street with multiple rounds, it’s usually an emotional attack — somebody who knows him.”
He added that because the attack happened so early in the morning in a low-crime area, it may not have been a random street crime.
“Santa Rosa, 6:30 a.m., is not the hotbed time for crime,” McGoey said. “Street muggers are usually zonked out by then.”
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Because of the victim’s long-standing role at the famed strip club and in the Bay Area’s nightlife scene, police face a large and complex suspect pool.
“It could have been anybody,” Castillo said. “A stranger totally unconnected to this business — or somebody from within it.”
He noted that detectives will interview anyone who had recent contact with Calcagni, looking for signs of arguments, fights or failed business deals. In nightlife environments, he added, investigators also consider whether sexual assault or human-trafficking claims may have created enemies.
A longtime friend and former DJ at the Condor Club, who wished to stay anonymous, told Fox News Digital that Calcagni “turned entertainers into managers more than anyone else he ever worked with.”
“If your mom or family member needed a job, he would give them a shot as the door person,” he shared. “Mark set the new standard for how entertainers should be treated.”
Both experts said the manner of the shooting could reveal a motive.
“If he was shot once, maybe this was a robbery,” he explained. “But if he was shot multiple times, that was sending a message to him and his family — and anyone connected to him.”
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Castillo said Santa Rosa detectives are likely canvassing the entire neighborhood, reviewing security video and Ring-camera video, which he called a “gold mine” for investigators.
“Ring cameras are gold as far as evidence is concerned … I can go back months and pull activity if I needed to,” he said.
Drawing on his LAPD experience, the former detective said clubs like the Condor often operate with large amounts of cash and strict security, but tensions can flare behind the scenes.
“A lot of the stuff happens under the table,” he said. “If someone feels they were shorted or ripped off, that anger can fester — and it can escalate.”
He also raised the possibility of revenge, a hired hit or a disgruntled former employee, reiterating that investigators “aren’t ruling anything out.”
Given the scope of the case and the resources required, the former detective said he wouldn’t be surprised if the Santa Rosa Police Department asks for help from the FBI.
“The FBI has access to technology, databases and investigative resources that local police may not have,” Castillo said. “Santa Rosa isn’t a huge department, so they may need the assistance.”
A spokesperson for the Santa Rosa Police Department said the investigation is being solely conducted by their department.
Calcagni’s killing took place on Brookwood Avenue, a residential area of Santa Rosa with homes typically valued in the moderate range, according to public property records and real estate data.
“It tells you we’re no longer immune to this type of violence,” Castillo said. “It can happen anywhere, at any time.”
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He noted that such crimes create fear not only among neighbors but also within the victim’s professional circle, where some potential witnesses may be reluctant to speak.
“Sometimes these dancers have two different lives — the family life and the life of being an entertainment dancer,” he said. “They want to keep that life secret.”
Both experts expect detectives to keep gathering forensic and digital evidence. McGoey pointed to the importance of shell-casing analysis, phone records and property checks to determine whether the crime was personal or financial.
“If his car or wallet is missing, maybe it’s robbery,” he said. “If everything’s there, it starts to look more like an execution.”
From Castillo’s perspective, the case remains wide open.
“Anything and everything’s on the table,” the detective concluded. “Whether it was pre-planned, a random attack or an act of revenge — they’re going to look at it all.”
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Investigators are still calling on the public to help piece together what happened.
Detectives are especially interested in any surveillance or dashcam video that may have captured suspicious activity in the area around the time of the shooting.
A reward of up to $5,000 is being offered by the Sonoma County Alliance Community Engagement and Safety Fund for information leading to an arrest.
Anyone with details related to the case is urged to contact the SRPD tip line at (707) 543-3590.
Stepheny Price covers crime, including missing persons, homicides and migrant crime. Send story tips to [email protected].
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