Iran poised to exploit power vacuum as US reduces Middle East presence

Just six months after the Trump administration said it would begin drawing down U.S. forces in Syria, the U.S. confirmed this week it will also begin reducing the number of U.S. forces in Iraq under an agreement reached by the Biden administration – a move security experts warn could benefit Iran and its “shadow empire.”  

Just six months after the Trump administration announced plans to draw down U.S. forces in Syria, the Biden administration confirmed this week it will also reduce troop levels in Iraq under a new agreement – a move security experts warn could strengthen Iran and its “shadow empire.”

The changes have come amid a perceived reduction in threat from the terrorist network ISIS and a growing U.S. desire to end “forever wars.”

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But a reduced U.S. presence in both Iraq and Syria has security experts deeply concerned about the power vacuum it will create in both countries, and the immediate threat that Iran poses. 

Iran for decades has been expanding its influence in both Iraq and Syria, and it has established a complex and highly embedded presence in the region militarily, politically, economically and socially, making it difficult to divert or thwart its influence even amid a regime change in Syria. 

“The relationship between Islamic Revolutionary Iran and Syria goes all the way back to the ’80s. It’s not something that just started with the advent of the Syrian civil war,” Gregg Roman, Executive Director of the Middle East Forum, told Fox News Digital. “They took 40 years of relations and eventually turned that into an enterprise.”

Iran has used Shia militant forces from not only Syria, but Iraq, Afghanistan and Lebanon, to construct a “parallel military infrastructure” in coordination with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) that has transformed Syria into an “Iranian forward operating base.”

According to an investigative report compiled by the Middle East Forum, using on-the-ground sources embedded in Iranian military installations across Syria since 2018, Iran has not only constructed underground tunnels and weapons depots for its disposal. Tehran has embedded itself deeply into the everyday lives of Syrians through an integrated system that has blended military duties with civil programs.

It’s command structure also transcends traditional nation-state borders by integrating Iranian, Lebanese and Iraqi commanders.

While Iran now faces opposition in Syria following the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime with the December 2024 takeover by the Sunni paramilitary organization Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HST) – once deemed by the U.S. as a terrorist organization deriving from al Qaeda – Tehran has the potential to take advantage of that of lack of a unified government across Syria, as well as an immensely complex geopolitical dynamic where Israel, Turkey and Russia are all vying for more influence in the nation.

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Roman pointed out that if HST, in coordination with the Kurds in the northeast or the Druze in the southwest, are not able to create a “bulwark” against Iranian influence, then Tehran could be well positioned to expand its regional interest under its “shadow empire.” 

“Perhaps most concerning is the precedent established by Iran’s success in constructing this shadow empire,” the report found. “The ability to build parallel military infrastructure, operate independently of host government control, and maintain strategic capabilities despite international scrutiny provides a template that could be replicated elsewhere in the region.”

Though its strategy may be slightly different, Iran has repeatedly used power vacuums to extend its reach and counter U.S. influence, as seen in both Afghanistan, where it backed the Taliban, and in Iraq, where it began backing Shia militia groups fighting the U.S. as early as 2003. 

“The Iranians have a strategy in Iraq, and it’s effective,” Bill Roggio, expert terrorism analyst and senior editor of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ “Long War Journal,” told Fox News Digital. “They’re using military, political and economic means to achieve their goals, and their proximity to Iraq really helps them achieve that.”

Roggio said there are hundreds of thousands of Iran-backed militants in Iraq who are largely a part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, which were heavily influential in fighting ISIS and are a part of the Iraqi Armed Forces under the command of the prime minister, but which are also heavily influenced by Tehran. 

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“They wield significant influence in the Iraqi government. They occupy a large, dominant block in the Iraqi parliament. And these militias also have economic power,” Roggio said. “Iran built these militia forces along the same lines as Hezbollah, and they essentially want them to ultimately become like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is in Iran.”

Both Roman and Roggio expressed concern over the withdrawal of U.S. troops from the region and, more significantly, the removal of U.S. influence at a time when Iran is looking to heavily counter Washington and its interests. 

“We haven’t learned the lessons of Afghanistan and even the lessons of Iraq,” Roggio said. “I don’t care if we have 100 or 100,000 troops in Afghanistan or anywhere else. Do we have the right troops to achieve the mission that we put out for them? 

“We talk about numbers of troops. … We’re not really talking about what is our mission in Iraq? Is it a counter-ISIS mission? Is it a stave off Iranian influence mission? 

“And do we have the right mixture of military and diplomatic and political and economic influence in Iraq to achieve those goals? I don’t believe we do.”

Both experts pointed out that the U.S. has a long history of not taking Iran and the threat it poses seriously enough, a problem that has spanned decades across both Republican and Democratic administrations. 

“The Iranians are patient. They’re operating on timeframes of decades and generations. And we aren’t patient. We operate in timeframes and two and four-year election cycles,” Roggio said. “Ultimately, Iran is looking to drive the U.S. from the region and expand its influence in neighboring countries, be it Afghanistan, be it Iraq, be it the Gulf states.

“The ultimate goal is to get the U.S. out so it can expand its influence.”