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TUCSON, Ariz. — Arizona investigators continue to look for leads into the Nancy Guthrie abduction case, as the search for clues enters its fourth week and appears to be a statistical outlier, according to FBI data and an expert.
Guthrie, 84, the mother of NBC’s “Today” co-host Savannah Guthrie, was abducted or kidnapped from her Tucson, Ariz., home, where she was last seen on Jan. 31.
Despite the widespread attention the case has received from the news media and amateur sleuths, it stands out because kidnapping and abduction of elderly victims remain extremely rare.
Retired FBI supervisory agent James Gagliano, who served as a deputy legal attaché in Mexico City from 2013–14 while working on kidnapping cases involving American citizens, said that such crimes involving older victims almost never happen.
“I don’t ever remember working an octogenarian (case),” Gagliano told Fox News Digital, referring to a person in their 80s. “That’s how rare this is.”
“Anytime I’ve heard of it, it was somebody taking a parent out of a care facility,” he added.
From January 2025 through January 2026, there were 54,653 kidnappings or abductions reported in the United States, according to FBI figures.
Of those, 604 victims were between the ages of 70 to 79 and 168 victims were between 80 and 89, the FBI said. Only 27 victims were aged 90 and above. Of the total number of kidnappings, more than 36,000 were taken from a residence, according to FBI figures.
Like most kidnappings, the victims were familiar with their abductors, with most offenders being either a boyfriend or girlfriend. Just over 5,200 kidnappings last year were committed by someone who was a stranger to the victim.
From January 2021 through January 2026, kidnappings of people ages 70 to 89 accounted for just over 1% of all abductions in the U.S., the FBI figures show.
NANCY GUTHRIE CASE: FBI PREPARES FOR ‘PARALLEL REALITIES’ WHILE AWAITING DNA RESULTS
Abductions typically happen for profit or revenge, Gagliano said. He noted that during his time working kidnappings in Mexico City, many involved Mexican nationals with U.S. citizenship who were kidnapped for ransom.
Guthrie was last seen at her home in the Catalina Foothills area near Tucson. Her children dropped her off at around 9:45 p.m. on Jan. 31, Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos said. Early on in the investigation, Nanos said Guthrie didn’t leave the house on her own accord, adding that a crime had been committed.
In addition to searching the surrounding areas near her home, authorities have tried to locate Guthrie’s pacemaker via new technology to sniff out a signal from the device.
Gagliano said it’s hard to determine whether those involved in Guthrie’s alleged disappearance are looking to profit.
In an interview with “NBC Nightly News” that aired Saturday, Nanos said investigators were not looking at any new names and that it was still unclear whether the DNA recovered inside Guthrie’s home has been useful for the investigation.
Amid the unanswered questions in the case, news outlets have received ransom notes related to the suspected kidnapping. Last year, the FBI warned of a “proof of life” scam where scammers alter photos from social media to extort people in fake ransom scams.
Ret. FBI Special Agent Robin Dreeke said ransom notes in the Guthrie case are just “spearfishing,” saying he believes Guthrie’s disappearance was part of a home burglary possibly gone wrong.
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“Not only is it extremely rare for an elderly person to be targeted in this way, it’s even more rare to be targeted in this way,” Dreeke told Fox News Digital. “This was not some complex thing. This was a home burglary, I think, for a very specific item… like they typically target with the elderly.”
“My guess is that this person targeted Nancy, targets the elderly, because they don’t notice when things are missing in the house,” he added.
As the investigation continues, there could be a “twist or a turn” that no one saw coming, Gagliano said.
“I’m confident that they’re going to find the people that did this,” he said. “I’m just not confident that it’s going to be a rescue or release. I’m fearing at this juncture it might be a recovery.”
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